Last week I finished up 2-3, which was disappointing considering the Steelers and Chiefs were both covering and leading in the 2nd half of their respective games. Kansas City beat Oakland, but the game was much closer than I anticipated as the Raiders only lost by one score. The Steelers had a historic collapse in their Sunday night defeat at the hands of the Chargers. Pittsburgh had never lost a home game when leading by 16 or more points until Sunday night. Los Angeles had an amazing comeback and won the game on a last second field goal. Below are my full results from last week.
Indianapolis – 4 over Jacksonville – L
New England – 5 over Minnesota – W
Seattle – 10 over San Francisco – W
Pittsburgh – 3.5 over Los Angeles – L
Kansas City – 15 over Oakland – L
Best Bets for Week 14 of the NFL Season.
Baltimore Ravens + 6.5 ( 6-6 ATS ) vs. Kansas City ( 8-3-1 ATS )
The Ravens have the number one scoring defense in football and they will no doubt get tested against the explosive Chiefs offense. Baltimore is riding a three game winning streak since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting quarterback. Baltimore had over 200 yards on the ground last week in Atlanta and the Chiefs gave up over 170 yards on the ground to Oakland. To keep the game close, Baltimore needs to run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. The Ravens are 6-3 ATS in their last nine road games and 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs will win, but Baltimore will keep the game close due to their running game and superb defense. I’m taking the Ravens + 6.5 this Sunday in Kansas City.
New York Giants – 3.5 ( 6-5-1 ATS ) vs. Washington Redskins ( 7-5 ATS )
The Redskins are down to journeyman quarterback Mark Sanchez after losing Alex Smith and Colt McCoy to season ending injuries. Washington is technically still alive in the NFC East race, but their chances are slim due to their injuries on the offensive line and the quarterback position. New York has won three of their last four games and playing well as they head into Washington. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games and 8-4 SU in their last twelve games playing in Washington. The Redskins are 1-4 SU in their last five games and 8-17 SU in their past 25 games against the Giants. This line opened up Washington favored by 1.5 points and is now sitting at New York favored by 3.5. That is a drastic line move, which in my opinion is more about Mark Sanchez then the recent play of the Giants. Take the Giants to cover the points over Mark Sanchez and the injury riddled Washington Redskins.
Buffalo Bills – 3.5 ( 5-7 ATS ) vs. New York Jets ( 4-8 ATS )
The Bills lost a close game last week in Miami where they outgained the Dolphins by over 200 yards. Buffalo is not a very good football team, but the past three weeks they have shown some fight which is a testament to head coach Sean McDermott and the Bills coaching staff. New York on the other hand is on a six game losing streak and had a big lead last week in Tennessee then completely fell apart in the four point lost to the Titans. First round pick, Sam Darnold, should be back from injury which in theory should help the Jets offense. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the past ten games against the Jets and 8-1 SU in their last nine home games against teams with losing records. New York is 1-10 SU in their past 11 games played on the road. Buffalo has the number one defense in the NFL against the pass which doesn’t bode well for Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. I would like Buffalo a lot more at -3, but I’m confident they will win and cover the points on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams – 3 ( 5-5-2 ATS ) vs. Chicago Bears ( 8-4 ATS )
The Rams clinched the NFC West last week and are still fighting for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Bears are leading the NFC North and will no doubt be a playoff team this year. Chicago is coming of a tough loss to the Giants, but they were without starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky who will make his return against the Rams. The matchup between the Rams offense and the Bears defense is getting all the headlines, but I feel the key to the game will be if the Rams defense will be able to smother a Bears offense, which is much more potent with Trubisky under center. Los Angeles defensive back Aqib Talib coming off ankle surgery played well last week in limited action against the Lions and he will be a key player moving forward for the Rams defense. Los Angeles is 11-1 SU over their past 12 games and 8-1 SU in their last nine away games. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven homes games and 6-2 ATS over the past eight games against the Rams. This will be a fascinating matchup between two teams that may meet in the NFC playoffs next month. I favor the Rams to win at Soldier Field and cover the small number Sunday night.
Seattle Seahawks – 3 (7-3-2 ATS ) vs. Minnesota Vikings ( 5-5-2 ATS )
This is a must win for both teams as they are fighting for an NFC Wild Card berth, and whoever wins this game will have a leg up in the race. Minnesota heads to Seattle off a loss in New England where the offense really struggled to move the ball. The Seahawks have won three games in a row and had a blowout win last week over San Francisco. The Vikings have struggled to run the ball all season and are ranked 30th in the league in rushing which has hampered their explosive passing game. Seattle has won this year with their running game and with Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson making plays in the clutch. The Seahawks are 14-3-3 ATS in their last 20 night games played at home and 46-12 SU over their past 58 home games overall. Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in their past 11 Monday night games and are 1-4 SU in the past five games played in Seattle. The Seahawks are the better team and will cruise to the win in this matchup.