Let’s start with a quick recap on last weeks bets. I hit on the Patriots and the Giants, and then the Panthers and Steelers dominated their games but fell apart late and collapsed. That finished my day at 2-3. It turned out to be a very frustrating weekend, which is life as a sports handicapper. Below are my full results from last week.
Jacksonville – 3 over Buffalo – L
New England – 9.5 over New York Jets – W
Carolina – 3 over Seattle – L
Pittsburgh – 3 over Denver – L
New York Giants +6 over Philadelphia – W
Best Bets for Week 13 of the NFL Season
Indianapolis Colts – 4 ( 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ( 3-6-2 ATS )
The Colts enter this game winners of five games in a roll and right in the middle of the AFC playoff race. Jacksonville comes in on a seven game losing streak and in complete disarray as they have benched quarterback Blake Bortles and running back Leonard Fournette is suspended after getting in a brawl during last week’s game in Buffalo. Cody Kessler gets the start for the Jags and is 0-8 in his career as a starter. The Jaguars are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games, and the Colts are 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road. Indianapolis is getting most of the betting attention as the game opened up with Indy favored by two and half and is now locked in with the Colts a four point favorite. I believe this will be a tight game into the second half until Andrew Luck takes control and leads the Colts to the win and the cover.
New England Patriots -5 ( 7-4 ATS ) vs. Minnesota Vikings ( 5-4-2 ATS )
This is one of the better games of the weekend as both teams have the potential to make deep playoff runs. New England is 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games with a winning margin of over 14 points. The Vikings are 1-4 SU in their last five games played in New England. Minnesota has not beat a team with a winning record this year and their losses have all been by five points or more. The line opened with New England favored by seven so the majority of the money is coming in on Minnesota. The Vikings have a lot of weapons on offense and their defense is starting to play much better, but I’m going with Tom Brady and the Patriots at home as they round into playoff form.
Seattle Seahawks -10 ( 6-3-2 ATS ) vs. San Francisco 49ers ( 3-8 ATS )
The Seahawks have won their last two games over playoff contenders Carolina and Green Bay and are playing their best football at the right time. They have the number one rushing offense in the league and have three quality backs who all have over 300 yards on the ground. San Francisco has had a tough season after losing Jimmy Garoppolo three games into the season. Seattle is 17-8 SU in their last 25 home games and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. San Francisco is 1-8 SU in their last nine games and 2-12 ATS in the last 14 games against the Seahawks. Over the final five weeks of the season, Seattle plays four home games where they have traditional been a power under Pete Carroll. Look for the Seahawks to roll on Sunday as they make a run for a Wild Card berth.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 ( 6-4-1 ATS ) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ( 6-5 ATS )
This could be a playoff preview and should be a Sunday night classic in Pittsburgh. Both teams have an outside shot at a first round playoff bye and have a ton on the line. The Steelers have averaged over 35 points a game at home this year which is 12 more then they average on the road. Los Angeles has given up a little over 18 points a game on the road which is tops in the NFL. Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven games and are 14-1 SU in their last 15 night games. The Chargers are 7-1 SU in their past eight games and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games against Pittsburgh. Melvin Gordon will be out for the Chargers which is a huge loss for the running game. He is one of the most underrated players in football and his playmaking ability will be greatly missed. This matchup will come down to the wire and I favor the Steelers to win and cover the small spread at home.
Kansas City Chiefs – 15 ( 8-2-1 ATS ) vs. Oakland Raiders (3-8 ATS )
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and needed the time off after their 54-51 loss to the Rams in LA. They are in prime position to get home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Oakland has been the worst team in football all season long and are making off-season vacation plans at this point. Andy Reid coming off a bye week is 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS in his career. The Chiefs as a team are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 games and 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven away games. The Raiders are 2-13 SU in their past 15 games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. I hate laying this many points, and normally this game would be a pass for me, but Kansas City is rested and they watched last night as the Saints marched into Dallas as a heavy favorite and lost straight up. A loss that might have cost New Orleans home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Chiefs will be prepared and won’t look past an Oakland team that has been a disaster this season. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the 15 points and win big.