Thanksgiving is truly a special holiday, and I hope everyone enjoyed quality time with loved ones and ate until they couldn’t. Now let’s recap last week.Sometimes in handicapping you can be on the right side and still take a bad beat. Unfortunately, this summed up my pick last week with Houston. The Texans had the ball up two and Washington was out of timeouts with less than a minute to play. Houston kicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, lined up a 45 yard field goal for the win and the cover and of course missed wide right. The Texans held on for the win, which does nothing for anyone who had them -3. I had Minnesota + 2.5 and saw some real value with the Vikings in Chicago, but that all vanished early in the fourth quarter when Kirk Cousins threw a pick six and Chicago cruised to a five point win. It was a rough week, but we push forward to Week 12. My results from last week are below.
Atlanta – 3 over Dallas – L
Houston – 3 over Washington – L
Tennessee + 2 over Indianapolis – L
Minnesota + 2.5 over Chicago – L
Kansas City + 3.5 over Los Angeles – W
Best Bets for Week 12 of the NFL Season.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 3 (3-5-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-6 ATS)The Jaguars will arrive in Buffalo on a six game losing streak looking for any way to stop the bleeding. Jacksonville had Super Bowl aspirations before the season and were a legit contender after a Week 2 win over the Patriots. But since that win, the wheels have completely fallen off. Buffalo is coming off a bye week and has rookie starting quarterback Josh Allen back in the lineup. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these teams. The Bills are 4-2 SU in the last 6 games against the Jaguars. All signs point to a low scoring game, and the total has gone under in six of Buffalo’s past eight games. I favor the more talented Jaguars in a hard fought game Sunday in Buffalo.New England Patriots – 9.5(6-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-7 ATS)Both teams head into this matchup off bye weeks and humiliating defeats in their last games. The Patriots have a two game lead in the AFC East and look ready to claim a remarkable 10th straight division title. It’s been a very disappointing season in New York as the Jets have lost four in a row and were blown out by the Bills in their previous game. This game opened up with New England favored by eight and now is pushing towards double digits. The Patriots are catching the betting love and that should continue as we get closer to Sunday. The Patriots are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games and 7-1 SU in the past eight meetings with New York. The Jets are a surprising 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog, but in this case, I can’t find a reason to side with the Jets. I’m going with Belichick and Brady to cover the large spread Sunday.Carolina Panthers – 3(5-5 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-3-2 ATS)This Sunday’s game in Carolina should be very competitive between two teams that are fighting for a playoff berth. The Panthers are a different team when they play at home. They are a perfect 5-0 SU this year and 4-1 ATS in the their past five home games. Seattle had a huge win last week against Green Bay that kept their playoff hopes alive. The Seahawks are 8-4 SU in their past 12 road games and have lost 5 games this year by a combined 25 points. This game opened with Carolina favored by four and has slightly dropped, and I don’t anticipate much change before kickoff. I expect a close game this week with the Panthers winning and covering the three points.Pittsburgh Steelers – 3(6-3-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (4-5-1 ATS)The Steelers enter this week on a six game winning streak and are 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 away games. They struggled last week in Jacksonville, but found a way to win in dramatic fashion. Denver had a great win over the Chargers last week which was easily their most impressive win of the season. The Broncos have traditionally had a great home field advantage, but have struggled recently going 1-4-1 ATS in their last six homes games and only 3-7 SU in their last ten home games. Three out of the past four games have been decided by seven points or less between these teams. I expect that trend to continue with the Steelers winning a tight game in Denver.New York Giants + 6(4-5-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles ( 3-7 ATS)New York heads to Philly on a 2 game winning streak after defeating San Francisco and Tampa Bay. These wins are not against quality competition, but its a step in the right direction for the Giants. Philadelphia enters this game on a two game losing streak after getting embarrassed in New Orleans last week. It looks like the Eagles will be without their top five cornerbacks this week, which is a scary proposition with Odell Beckham Jr. coming to town. New York is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and the Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The line opened with the Eagles favored by six and has held steady so the game is getting two-way action. With both teams having suspect defenses, look for a high scoring game with Philly making just enough plays to win. I have no faith that they will cover the six points. I’m taking the Giants and the points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won straight up.